5 Key Principles for Managing Uncertainty
True Empowerment
Based on hard experience that “planning is good and plans are useless”, great leaders obsess on ensuring that each individual is crystal clear on the objective, why it is important and their role in realising it. This is because the assumption is that the changing situation will make the plan irrelevant whilst a simple objective provides a consistent “North Star”.
The key lesson for many leaders is to avoid the temptation to be over-detailed in giving directions that are likely outdated before they are even shared: a worst case example is seeing a simple 1-page strategy cascaded into more than 30,000 actions by the time it got to the shop floor. Instead, we should take the opportunity to really practice empowerment, rather than seeking to over-control execution.
Clear the Net
The net, in this context, is the communication network. In the midst of crisis / uncertainty, any communication that is not extremely concise and value added is distracting and confusing for any organisation / team. Unfortunately, the temptation for all of us in panic is to dive in, offer our opinion and share “helpful information”.
Think of all the noise that we see in the news and social media right now, think of how much we might be sharing and then ask yourself how much of that is cutting through complexity instead of fuelling it. We can therefore do each other a major service by helping to develop precise, clear and consistent message tracks to ensure renewed focus and confidence.
Lead with (Tough) Love
A leader proven in the most testing of times once wrote that “Sound leadership, like true love to which I suspect it is closely related, is all powerful. It can overcome the seemingly impossible and its effect on both leader and led is profound and lasting”. Simply, no-one will willingly take difficult direction / decisions from a leader that they do not absolutely trust and respect.
Those same words are too often given lip-service in the corporate world: we have all been in teams with “Trust & respect” as operating principles on the wall but not in action. This gets exposed instantly in crisis: and every leader needs to have an honest self-assessment of themselves and their teams in order to literally earn the right to lead tomorrow.
Economy of Effort
A key issue in uncertainty is that we can be called on to operate for an indeterminate time at the highest level of preparedness, 24/7. This awareness creates a different level of meaning for the cliché that we are “in a marathon not a sprint”. It is why the most successful leaders in crisis conserve their energy and resource for when it is really needed and have the ability to turn it on immediately; and off again as soon as it is no longer required.
The reality for all of us is that current uncertainty is not an incident to manage, it is a longer-term change of context: a context that demands endurance, positive spirit and a precise understanding of when and how to act decisively. With that marathon mindset, any faster resolution than we currently expect will be an unexpected relief for all of us.
Decide 40/70
In the face of uncertainty, making a decision with less than 40% of the data is an unethical gamble. Equally, though, waiting for more than 70% of the data also constitutes unacceptable risk in a fast-moving context. This thinking is still not yet present in many businesses: we see the “less than 40%” reactions as above and, equally, we have all worked with people who keep demanding data in the hope that it will make the decision for them.
A key example is the digital / AI journey that we are all on; the only answer is understand the context as well as we can, to move forward and learn as we go. We can help each other to navigate this balance, starting with acceptance that data-driven certainty is increasingly rare in a permanently changed and volatile world.
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