VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) is a term coined in the 1990s. Since then, it has become the go-to framework for describing turbulent business environments across industries and sectors. In many cases, it’s also been used as a convenient explanation – or even excuse – for why leadership struggles to deliver results: “The world is just too unpredictable.”

The reality is that this challenging world can be managed by getting more specific on assessing HOW we approach the different elements of VUCA. Then decide on the right actions. In our opinion, it is also time we logically thought about the world as CAVU, not VUCA.

Rethinking VUCA: Internal vs. External Dynamics

Let’s break it down:

• Complexity and Ambiguity are largely driven by internal dynamics. These include organisational structures, decision-making processes and strategic choices (e.g., where to invest, which markets to pursue). Leaders must cut through complexity and manage ambiguity by thinking critically, weighing options and making deliberate choices.
• Volatility and Uncertainty, on the other hand, stem mostly from external forces such as political shifts, pandemics or regulatory changes. To succeed in the face of these variables, companies must develop robust scenario planning and be agile enough to respond quickly when the unexpected happens.

Thriving in this World: An Approach

Each element requires a distinct assessment. Unfortunately, many organisations blur these lines, misidentifying the nature of the challenge and the correct sequence – and applying the wrong solutions as a result. Addressing Volatility and Uncertainty without first having considered Complexity and Ambiguity is a classic error. To help our clients avoid this pitfall, we recommend the following:

Always be clear on the Case for Change and the Vision for your business. With a Lead Team and Organisation aligned on what change is needed and where they are heading, clients will more quickly identify where the Complexity and Ambiguity is. This enables you to make the right choices and the big decisions necessary to win.

Then, ensure there is both a Feasible Plan and the necessary Capability within your organisation to cope with the inevitable Volatility and Uncertainty. A great strategy is a fine start but your team will not be able to deal with the external factors if there are not effective planning and the right people in place to implement them.

While others may look to newer models like BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible) to describe today’s uncertainty, CAVU offers a more actionable way forward – one rooted in strategic clarity, alignment and capability.

When companies address all four areas sequentially, with clarity and intention, they develop a deep, sustainable resilience. Especially in a CAVU world.